{"id":7462,"date":"2022-10-25T15:17:09","date_gmt":"2022-10-25T14:17:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/?p=7462"},"modified":"2022-10-25T15:17:59","modified_gmt":"2022-10-25T14:17:59","slug":"the-challenge-of-net-run-rate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/the-challenge-of-net-run-rate\/","title":{"rendered":"The Challenge of Net Run Rate: Helping Fans Daydream through Competition Rules"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-0  el_before_av_three_fifth  avia-builder-el-first  \" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-1  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  \" style='border-radius:0px; '><div  style='padding-bottom:10px; ' class='av-special-heading av-special-heading-h2  blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-2  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  thought-leadership-heading '><div class ='av-subheading av-subheading_above  ' style='font-size:15px;'><p>Thought Leadership<\/p>\n<\/div><h2 class='av-special-heading-tag '  itemprop=\"headline\"  >The Challenge of Net Run Rate: Helping fans daydream through competition rules<\/h2><div class='special-heading-border'><div class='special-heading-inner-border' ><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-3  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  \" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-4  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock  av_inherit_color '  style='color:#80808a; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><h4><span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\"><\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 7<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">MIN READ<\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-author '   itemprop=\"text\" ><h3><strong>By Omar Chaudhuri\u00a0<\/strong><\/h3>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>October 25, 2022<\/h3>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div  style='height:5px' class='hr hr-invisible   avia-builder-el-7  el_after_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-last '><span class='hr-inner ' ><span class='hr-inner-style'><\/span><\/span><\/div><\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-8  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><p><div  class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-builder-el-9  el_before_av_hr  avia-builder-el-first  avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><div class='avia-image-overlay-wrap'><img decoding=\"async\" class='wp-image-7463 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-7463 avia_image' src=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/GettyImages-1236069777.jpg\" alt='' title='CRICKET-WC-2021-T20-AUS-RSA' height=\"1521\" width=\"2281\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/GettyImages-1236069777.jpg 2281w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/GettyImages-1236069777-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/GettyImages-1236069777-1030x687.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/GettyImages-1236069777-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/GettyImages-1236069777-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/GettyImages-1236069777-2048x1366.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/GettyImages-1236069777-1500x1000.jpg 1500w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/GettyImages-1236069777-705x470.jpg 705w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2281px) 100vw, 2281px\" \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<div  style='height:5px' class='hr hr-invisible   avia-builder-el-10  el_after_av_image  avia-builder-el-last '><span class='hr-inner ' ><span class='hr-inner-style'><\/span><\/span><\/div><\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-11  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-12  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-share '   itemprop=\"text\" ><h3>Thought Leadership<\/h3>\n<p>Inspired by what you&#8217;re reading? Why not subscribe for regular insights delivered straight to your inbox.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div  class='avia-button-wrap avia-button-left  avia-builder-el-14  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock ' ><a href='https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/contact\/news-signup\/'  class='avia-button  avia-color-theme-color   avia-icon_select-no avia-size-small avia-position-left '   ><span class='avia_iconbox_title' >Subscribe<\/span><\/a><\/div><br \/>\n<section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock  '   itemprop=\"text\" ><hr \/>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div  class='av-social-sharing-box  avia-builder-el-16  el_after_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-last  '><div class='av-share-box'><h5 class='av-share-link-description av-no-toc '>Share this story<\/h5><ul class='av-share-box-list noLightbox'><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-facebook' ><a target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Share on Facebook\" href='https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/the-challenge-of-net-run-rate\/&#038;t=The%20Challenge%20of%20Net%20Run%20Rate%3A%20Helping%20Fans%20Daydream%20through%20Competition%20Rules' aria-hidden='false' data-av_icon='\ue8f3' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on Facebook' rel=\"noopener\"><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on Facebook<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-twitter' ><a target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Share on Twitter\" href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/share?text=The%20Challenge%20of%20Net%20Run%20Rate%3A%20Helping%20Fans%20Daydream%20through%20Competition%20Rules&#038;url=https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/?p=7462' aria-hidden='false' data-av_icon='\ue8f1' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on Twitter' rel=\"noopener\"><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on Twitter<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-linkedin' ><a target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Share on LinkedIn\" href='https:\/\/linkedin.com\/shareArticle?mini=true&#038;title=The%20Challenge%20of%20Net%20Run%20Rate%3A%20Helping%20Fans%20Daydream%20through%20Competition%20Rules&#038;url=https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/the-challenge-of-net-run-rate\/' aria-hidden='false' data-av_icon='\ue8fc' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on LinkedIn' rel=\"noopener\"><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on LinkedIn<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-17  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-main-content '  style='font-size:20px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For fans, one of the great joys of league competition formats is calculating permutations. Fans revel in conversations that start with \u201cif we win this game, and they lose that game\u2026\u201d, as imaginations plot a path to glory.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The excitement increases as these permutations play out live. The world\u2019s simplest-scoring sport, football, has thrown up countless examples of final-day dramas, where teams have scraped results that have enabled survival or won titles. Even the most complex scenarios, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.efl.com\/news\/2022\/may\/the-unbelievable-how-bristol-rovers-secured-promotion-on-a-dramatic-final-day\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">like Bristol Rovers overcoming a 5-goal swing to be promoted on goals scored last season<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, are easy to understand and calculate without the need for a calculator or spreadsheet. Rovers\u2019 unlikely but easy-to-follow story gave fans a reason to connect with League Two football.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">T20 cricket, with its short group stages and toss-up playing format, is another sport that regularly deals with permutations. Teams are often required to win their final match by a certain margin to leapfrog rivals on the same points in their group or league. In the history of the T20 World Cup, 33% of groups have seen a team eliminated based on a tiebreaker known as \u2018net run rate\u2019, which is used to calculate these required margins.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The problem cricket has is that the net run rate methodology &#8211; which is fundamental to permutation conversations &#8211; is impenetrable to a casual or even intermediate fan (as a quick glance at its <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Net_run_rate\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Wikipedia page<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> will attest). Fans are forced to rely on broadcasters and journalists, who in turn rely on cricket statisticians, to tell them if a team has done enough to qualify in the event of a group stage tie.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What\u2019s more, fans can only find out what winning margin is required relatively late in a competition, denying them the opportunity to play out some of the paths to qualification in earlier match rounds.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cricket could therefore benefit from an alternative tiebreaker system that is easier to understand and calculate for fans, broadcasters and players alike. Our proposed alternative? A \u2018result margin\u2019, which works in exactly the same way as goal difference in football. Teams that are victorious batting first are awarded a winning margin equivalent to their win in runs, while teams that are victorious batting second are awarded a winning margin equivalent to their win in balls remaining. The losing teams are given equivalent negative values, like \u2018goals against\u2019 in football. For example, a team that wins by 20 runs is given +20 credit, and the losing team -20. In another game, a team that wins with 30 balls remaining is given +30 credit, and the losing team -30.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Using balls and runs, the two main currencies of limited overs cricket, makes it considerably easier for fans to understand and calculate what different teams require going into each game; as can be seen by the case study example from the 2021 World Cup below. It can be used game-by-game to build narratives on what teams need, and importantly can be followed closely on a ball-by-ball basis during the dramatic final stages of a league competition.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Crucially, it will produce almost identical outcomes to net run rate, which is universally considered to be a fair tiebreaker. In the history of the T20 World Cup, none of the 36 groups played between 2007 and 2021 would have had a different team progress under the result margin method. This fact should temper the temptation to \u2018inflate\u2019 victories by balls remaining, given that there are usually more runs than balls in a match. Simplicity is critical; the methodology provides all the benefits of allowing fans to connect with a competition, without compromising on sporting credibility.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-19  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div><\/p>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-20  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div   avia-builder-el-21  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='background: #006bed; padding:10px 30px 10px 30px ; background-color:#006bed; border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-main-content '  style='font-size:20px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">Case study<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the 2021 T20 World Cup, Australia and South Africa were level on points going into the final round of matches, with whoever finishing higher set to progress. Australia, playing first, looked to win big to open up a net run rate gap over South Africa, though as <\/span><a style=\"color: #ffffff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espncricinfo.com\/story\/men-s-t20-world-cup-2021-group-1-scenarios-australia-frontrunners-for-second-spot-1287555\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">commentary at the time made clear<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, what constituted a big enough win was unclear due to the nature of net run rate.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; color: #ffffff;\">Australia did win, with the match report stating that they \u201ctook their net run rate up to 1.216, leaving South Africa needing a 61-run win should they score 160 to deny Australia the semi-final spot.\u201d Fans were asked to trust the net run rate calculation, and South Africa\u2019s win requirement remained opaque, conditional on whether they batted first or second, and how much they scored.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; color: #ffffff;\">The \u2018result margin\u2019 methodology would have simplified the question, and given fans a reason to follow ball-by-ball. By this method, Australia\u2019s margin was +52 going into the day (having won games by 2, 18, and 82 balls, and lost one game by 50 balls) and South Africa\u2019s was +48 (having won games by 1, 10, and 39 balls, and lost one game by 2 balls). South Africa therefore would have needed to better Australia\u2019s winning margin by +5 to qualify.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; color: #ffffff;\">The first narrative of the day would have been about to what extent Australia could open up that gap, with each ball of their run chase having measurable meaning. And the second narrative would have focused squarely on whether South Africa could beat that margin by 5 &#8211; in the end, this would have meant securing a win with 27 balls remaining, or by 27 runs.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-23  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div><\/p>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-24  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-25  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-main-content '  style='font-size:20px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As competition organisers fight for the attention of fans, it is important that competition rules and complex narratives are not a turn-off. Cricket and other sports can find and validate solutions through modelling and creative thinking that can further enhance the sporting product and connect fans more deeply with the action.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If you would like to find out more about our competition intelligence services please get in touch with <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/contact\/get-in-touch\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Omar Chaudhuri<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-27  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_codeblock  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":7463,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[53,33],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.0 - 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