{"id":7797,"date":"2022-12-19T14:52:29","date_gmt":"2022-12-19T14:52:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/?p=7797"},"modified":"2022-12-20T13:15:43","modified_gmt":"2022-12-20T13:15:43","slug":"what-could-an-expanded-2026-fifa-world-cup-look-like","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/what-could-an-expanded-2026-fifa-world-cup-look-like\/","title":{"rendered":"What could an expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup look like?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-0  el_before_av_three_fifth  avia-builder-el-first  \" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-1  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  \" style='border-radius:0px; '><div  style='padding-bottom:10px; ' class='av-special-heading av-special-heading-h2  blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-2  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  thought-leadership-heading '><div class ='av-subheading av-subheading_above  ' style='font-size:15px;'><p>Thought Leadership<\/p>\n<\/div><h2 class='av-special-heading-tag '  itemprop=\"headline\"  >What could an expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup look like?<\/h2><div class='special-heading-border'><div class='special-heading-inner-border' ><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-3  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  \" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-4  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock  av_inherit_color '  style='color:#80808a; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><h4><span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\"><\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 11<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">MIN READ<\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-author '   itemprop=\"text\" ><h3><strong>By Omar Chaudhuri\u00a0<\/strong><\/h3>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>December 19, 2022<\/h3>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div  style='height:5px' class='hr hr-invisible   avia-builder-el-7  el_after_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-last '><span class='hr-inner ' ><span class='hr-inner-style'><\/span><\/span><\/div><\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-8  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><p><div  class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-builder-el-9  el_before_av_hr  avia-builder-el-first  avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><div class='avia-image-overlay-wrap'><img decoding=\"async\" class='wp-image-7804 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-7804 avia_image' src=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/GettyImages-1450266621-scaled.jpg\" alt='' title='Argentina v France: Final - FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022' height=\"1642\" width=\"2560\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/GettyImages-1450266621-scaled.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/GettyImages-1450266621-300x192.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/GettyImages-1450266621-1030x661.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/GettyImages-1450266621-768x492.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/GettyImages-1450266621-1536x985.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/GettyImages-1450266621-2048x1313.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/GettyImages-1450266621-1500x962.jpg 1500w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/GettyImages-1450266621-705x452.jpg 705w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<div  style='height:5px' class='hr hr-invisible   avia-builder-el-10  el_after_av_image  avia-builder-el-last '><span class='hr-inner ' ><span class='hr-inner-style'><\/span><\/span><\/div><\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-11  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-12  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-share '   itemprop=\"text\" ><h3>Thought Leadership<\/h3>\n<p>Inspired by what you&#8217;re reading? Why not subscribe for regular insights delivered straight to your inbox.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div  class='avia-button-wrap avia-button-left  avia-builder-el-14  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock ' ><a href='https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/contact\/news-signup\/'  class='avia-button  avia-color-theme-color   avia-icon_select-no avia-size-small avia-position-left '   ><span class='avia_iconbox_title' >Subscribe<\/span><\/a><\/div><br \/>\n<section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock  '   itemprop=\"text\" ><hr \/>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div  class='av-social-sharing-box  avia-builder-el-16  el_after_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-last  '><div class='av-share-box'><h5 class='av-share-link-description av-no-toc '>Share this story<\/h5><ul class='av-share-box-list noLightbox'><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-facebook' ><a target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Share on Facebook\" href='https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/what-could-an-expanded-2026-fifa-world-cup-look-like\/&#038;t=What%20could%20an%20expanded%202026%20FIFA%20World%20Cup%20look%20like%3F' aria-hidden='false' data-av_icon='\ue8f3' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on Facebook' rel=\"noopener\"><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on Facebook<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-twitter' ><a target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Share on Twitter\" href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/share?text=What%20could%20an%20expanded%202026%20FIFA%20World%20Cup%20look%20like%3F&#038;url=https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/?p=7797' aria-hidden='false' data-av_icon='\ue8f1' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on Twitter' rel=\"noopener\"><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on Twitter<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-linkedin' ><a target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Share on LinkedIn\" href='https:\/\/linkedin.com\/shareArticle?mini=true&#038;title=What%20could%20an%20expanded%202026%20FIFA%20World%20Cup%20look%20like%3F&#038;url=https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/what-could-an-expanded-2026-fifa-world-cup-look-like\/' aria-hidden='false' data-av_icon='\ue8fc' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on LinkedIn' rel=\"noopener\"><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on LinkedIn<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-17  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-main-content '  style='font-size:20px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The drama of the 2022 FIFA World Cup has led many to both question the merits of an expanded tournament in 2026, and also call out the problems of finding a suitable format for a 48-team competition.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This debate is not merely academic. At Twenty First Group, we are firm believers that the success of the sporting product drives commercial success. A World Cup that is poorly designed risks putting off fans, broadcasters, and sponsors.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We break the sporting success of the FIFA World Cup into three categories:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Quality<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: fans want to see the best play the best<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Jeopardy<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: fans want genuine uncertainty of outcomes<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Connection<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: fans want to care about the narratives<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Our Intelligence Engine can help evaluate how different formats deliver against each of these pillars. FIFA are contemplating two formats: 16 groups of 3 teams and 12 groups of 4 teams. We\u2019ve also assessed a third: 8 groups of 6 teams in a Swiss-style fixture list (like the one to be used in the UEFA Champions League from 2024), where teams play just 3 opponents in their group. This format has the benefit of keeping a similar number of fixtures as option A, but avoiding the issues of potential collusion (analysed below).<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-19  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div><\/p>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-20  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div   avia-builder-el-21  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='padding:10px 30px 10px 30px ; border-radius:0px; '><div  class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-builder-el-22  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><div class='avia-image-overlay-wrap'><img decoding=\"async\" class='wp-image-7798 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-7798 avia_image' src=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/format-overview.png\" alt='' title='format overview' height=\"526\" width=\"990\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/format-overview.png 990w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/format-overview-300x159.png 300w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/format-overview-768x408.png 768w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/format-overview-705x375.png 705w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 990px) 100vw, 990px\" \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-23  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-24  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-25  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-main-content '  style='font-size:20px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><b>Quality<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A mix of more games and that 75% of teams in some groups will progress means that the 12&#215;4 format reduces the chance of early upsets. This in turn means that it is most likely to deliver the highest-quality finals. Our models suggest that that there\u2019s a 55% chance that one of the four \u2018best\u2019 teams win under this format, compared to closer to 50% under the other two formats.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-27  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-28  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div   avia-builder-el-29  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='padding:10px 30px 10px 30px ; border-radius:0px; '><div  class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-builder-el-30  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><div class='avia-image-overlay-wrap'><img decoding=\"async\" class='wp-image-7826 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-7826 avia_image' src=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/quality-1.png\" alt='' title='quality (1)' height=\"985\" width=\"990\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/quality-1.png 990w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/quality-1-300x298.png 300w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/quality-1-80x80.png 80w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/quality-1-768x764.png 768w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/quality-1-36x36.png 36w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/quality-1-180x180.png 180w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/quality-1-705x701.png 705w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 990px) 100vw, 990px\" \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-31  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-32  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-33  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-main-content '  style='font-size:20px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><b>Jeopardy<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Jeopardy proved central to the 2022 World Cup\u2019s on-field success. The final group games were short on dead rubbers, while many games were also evenly-matched and tense throughout.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A major issue with the 16&#215;3 format is the possibility for collusion between teams to ensure both qualify ahead of the third team in the group. Our modelling suggests that this risk is particularly high when the two highest seeds play in the final round of games; the fears that a repeat of the \u2018Disgrace of Gij\u00f3n\u2019 could materialise are well-founded. <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-35  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-36  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div   avia-builder-el-37  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='padding:10px 30px 10px 30px ; border-radius:0px; '><div  class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-builder-el-38  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><div class='avia-image-overlay-wrap'><img decoding=\"async\" class='wp-image-7800 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-7800 avia_image' src=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/collusion.png\" alt='' title='collusion' height=\"985\" width=\"990\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/collusion.png 990w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/collusion-300x298.png 300w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/collusion-80x80.png 80w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/collusion-768x764.png 768w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/collusion-36x36.png 36w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/collusion-180x180.png 180w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/collusion-705x701.png 705w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 990px) 100vw, 990px\" \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-39  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-40  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-41  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-main-content '  style='font-size:20px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The upside of this format is that it guarantees no dead rubbers: teams will always be playing for something in their final group game. The 12&#215;4 format also almost always guarantees that there is qualification on the line in every game, though the battle for first place is more often tied up.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-43  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-44  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div   avia-builder-el-45  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='padding:10px 30px 10px 30px ; border-radius:0px; '><div  class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-builder-el-46  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><div class='avia-image-overlay-wrap'><img decoding=\"async\" class='wp-image-7801 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-7801 avia_image' src=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/dead-rubbers.png\" alt='' title='dead rubbers' height=\"985\" width=\"990\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/dead-rubbers.png 990w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/dead-rubbers-300x298.png 300w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/dead-rubbers-80x80.png 80w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/dead-rubbers-768x764.png 768w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/dead-rubbers-36x36.png 36w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/dead-rubbers-180x180.png 180w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/dead-rubbers-705x701.png 705w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 990px) 100vw, 990px\" \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-47  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-48  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-49  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-main-content '  style='font-size:20px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The World Cup organisers should also seek to maximise jeopardy in the games with the highest stakes, and our simulations suggest that matches in the latest stages of the competition are the least likely to be one-sided and won by 3+ goals in the 12&#215;4 format.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-51  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-52  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div   avia-builder-el-53  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='padding:10px 30px 10px 30px ; border-radius:0px; '><div  class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-builder-el-54  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><div class='avia-image-overlay-wrap'><img decoding=\"async\" class='wp-image-7802 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-7802 avia_image' src=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/3goalwins-1.png\" alt='' title='3goalwins' height=\"985\" width=\"990\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/3goalwins-1.png 990w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/3goalwins-1-300x298.png 300w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/3goalwins-1-80x80.png 80w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/3goalwins-1-768x764.png 768w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/3goalwins-1-36x36.png 36w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/3goalwins-1-180x180.png 180w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/3goalwins-1-705x701.png 705w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 990px) 100vw, 990px\" \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-55  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-56  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-57  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-main-content '  style='font-size:20px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><b>Connection<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The success of World Cups depends in part on the success of the host countries. An early elimination can take energy out of the tournament, and dilute the connection that visiting fans have to the host. Different formats offer different opportunities for hosts, with the Swiss-style 8&#215;6 format giving a better than 1-in-4 chance that one of the quarter-finalists is a host nation.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-59  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-60  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div   avia-builder-el-61  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='padding:10px 30px 10px 30px ; border-radius:0px; '><div  class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-builder-el-62  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><div class='avia-image-overlay-wrap'><img decoding=\"async\" class='wp-image-7803 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-7803 avia_image' src=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/hosts.png\" alt='' title='hosts' height=\"990\" width=\"990\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/hosts.png 990w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/hosts-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/hosts-80x80.png 80w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/hosts-768x768.png 768w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/hosts-36x36.png 36w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/hosts-180x180.png 180w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/hosts-705x705.png 705w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 990px) 100vw, 990px\" \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-63  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-64  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-65  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-main-content '  style='font-size:20px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fans also tend to watch heavyweight matches in higher numbers, with the 2022 final demonstrating the value of two of the game\u2019s giants meeting in high-stakes games. The 12&#215;4 format excels here, partially due to the additional number of games, though it also has a slightly higher likelihood of a \u2018heavyweight\u2019 final (42%, compared to 39% for option A and 32% for option B).<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-67  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-68  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div   avia-builder-el-69  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='padding:10px 30px 10px 30px ; border-radius:0px; '><div  class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-builder-el-70  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><div class='avia-image-overlay-wrap'><img decoding=\"async\" class='wp-image-7817 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-7817 avia_image' src=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/heavyweight.png\" alt='' title='heavyweight' height=\"985\" width=\"990\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/heavyweight.png 990w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/heavyweight-300x298.png 300w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/heavyweight-80x80.png 80w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/heavyweight-768x764.png 768w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/heavyweight-36x36.png 36w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/heavyweight-180x180.png 180w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/heavyweight-705x701.png 705w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 990px) 100vw, 990px\" \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-71  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-72  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-73  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-main-content '  style='font-size:20px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><b>Conclusion<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Our analysis illustrates the folly of considering a 3-team group stage for the 2026 World Cup. The format is outperformed by the 4-team group format in delivering quality, jeopardy, and connection, and also underperforms against a 6-team group format that maintains a similar number of matches. The differences are not trivial, and highlight the importance of properly assessing competition formats. For 2026 to follow up 2022\u2019s sporting success, designing the right competition will be critical to not letting down fans and commercial partners.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>If you would like to find out more about our competition intelligence services please get in touch with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/contact\/get-in-touch\/\">Ben Marlow<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-75  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_codeblock  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":7804,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[53,33],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>What could an expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup look like? 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