{"id":7870,"date":"2023-01-09T10:43:15","date_gmt":"2023-01-09T10:43:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/?p=7870"},"modified":"2023-01-09T10:43:15","modified_gmt":"2023-01-09T10:43:15","slug":"how-to-use-the-january-window-effectively-to-avoid-relegation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/how-to-use-the-january-window-effectively-to-avoid-relegation\/","title":{"rendered":"How to use the January Window effectively to avoid relegation"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-0  el_before_av_three_fifth  avia-builder-el-first  \" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-1  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  \" style='border-radius:0px; '><div  style='padding-bottom:10px; ' class='av-special-heading av-special-heading-h2  blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-2  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  thought-leadership-heading '><div class ='av-subheading av-subheading_above  ' style='font-size:15px;'><p>Thought Leadership<\/p>\n<\/div><h2 class='av-special-heading-tag '  itemprop=\"headline\"  >How to use the January Window effectively to avoid relegation <\/h2><div class='special-heading-border'><div class='special-heading-inner-border' ><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-3  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  \" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-4  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock  av_inherit_color '  style='color:#80808a; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><h4><span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\"><\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 5<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">MIN READ<\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-author '   itemprop=\"text\" ><h3><strong>By Omar Chaudhuri<\/strong><\/h3>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>January 6, 2023<\/h3>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div  style='height:5px' class='hr hr-invisible   avia-builder-el-7  el_after_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-last '><span class='hr-inner ' ><span class='hr-inner-style'><\/span><\/span><\/div><\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-8  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><p><div  class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-builder-el-9  el_before_av_hr  avia-builder-el-first  avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><div class='avia-image-overlay-wrap'><img decoding=\"async\" class='wp-image-7872 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-7872 avia_image' src=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/GettyImages-1441183645-scaled.jpg\" alt='' title='Hellas Verona v Spezia Calcio - Serie A' height=\"1707\" width=\"2560\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/GettyImages-1441183645-scaled.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/GettyImages-1441183645-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/GettyImages-1441183645-1030x687.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/GettyImages-1441183645-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/GettyImages-1441183645-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/GettyImages-1441183645-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/GettyImages-1441183645-1500x1000.jpg 1500w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/GettyImages-1441183645-705x470.jpg 705w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<div  style='height:5px' class='hr hr-invisible   avia-builder-el-10  el_after_av_image  avia-builder-el-last '><span class='hr-inner ' ><span class='hr-inner-style'><\/span><\/span><\/div><\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-11  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-12  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-share '   itemprop=\"text\" ><h3>Thought Leadership<\/h3>\n<p>Inspired by what you&#8217;re reading? Why not subscribe for regular insights delivered straight to your inbox.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div  class='avia-button-wrap avia-button-left  avia-builder-el-14  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock ' ><a href='https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/contact\/news-signup\/'  class='avia-button  avia-color-theme-color   avia-icon_select-no avia-size-small avia-position-left '   ><span class='avia_iconbox_title' >Subscribe<\/span><\/a><\/div><br \/>\n<section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock  '   itemprop=\"text\" ><hr \/>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div  class='av-social-sharing-box  avia-builder-el-16  el_after_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-last  '><div class='av-share-box'><h5 class='av-share-link-description av-no-toc '>Share this story<\/h5><ul class='av-share-box-list noLightbox'><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-facebook' ><a target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Share on Facebook\" href='https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/how-to-use-the-january-window-effectively-to-avoid-relegation\/&#038;t=How%20to%20use%20the%20January%20Window%20effectively%20to%20avoid%20relegation' aria-hidden='false' data-av_icon='\ue8f3' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on Facebook' rel=\"noopener\"><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on Facebook<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-twitter' ><a target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Share on Twitter\" href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/share?text=How%20to%20use%20the%20January%20Window%20effectively%20to%20avoid%20relegation&#038;url=https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/?p=7870' aria-hidden='false' data-av_icon='\ue8f1' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on Twitter' rel=\"noopener\"><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on Twitter<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-linkedin' ><a target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Share on LinkedIn\" href='https:\/\/linkedin.com\/shareArticle?mini=true&#038;title=How%20to%20use%20the%20January%20Window%20effectively%20to%20avoid%20relegation&#038;url=https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/how-to-use-the-january-window-effectively-to-avoid-relegation\/' aria-hidden='false' data-av_icon='\ue8fc' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on LinkedIn' rel=\"noopener\"><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on LinkedIn<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-17  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-main-content '  style='font-size:20px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Spezia have so far defied the odds to survive back-to-back seasons in Serie A, having never played in the top flight before 2020. In 2023, they face a third consecutive relegation battle, and owner Robert Platek faces questions on how best to evaluate and influence the short-term needs of the club through the January transfer window.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We\u2019ve developed a methodology that helps owners and boards build a transfer window strategy. Specifically, our modelling enables clubs to quantify the likely performance return of any investment, and therefore determine how and how much to invest in the squad and\/or other sporting operations. In January this is particularly important given demand for talent outstrips supply, leading to premiums often in excess of 20%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The starting point for any club is to recognise risk in the form of probabilities. According to our league projections, Spezia have a 35% chance of being relegated as things stand today. Any significant changes to the squad or operational approach only serves to manage that risk; football is a low-scoring sport, and even if Spezia were to play well for much of the rest of the season, bad luck in just a few games would be enough to relegate them. Any changes or spending is therefore designed to reduce the impact that bad luck can have.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Our methodology allows us to understand how much spending really does mitigate that risk. We know, for example, that net transfer spend in January has just a 5% positive correlation with change in points per game, and that \u20ac20m in net spending has delivered on average just a 0.03 increase in points per game in the big 5 leagues since 2015.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Looking specifically at Spezia\u2019s squad and situation, our models suggest that \u20ac5m of investment into the team would only reduce their chances of relegation to 34%. That assumes the money is spent as efficiently as an average club; if Spezia can identify players whose true value is \u20ac14m but at a cost of \u20ac7m &#8211; perfectly achievable with a smart player scouting and recruitment process &#8211; their relegation chances drop towards 30%. The difference is small but potentially significant in expected future broadcast rights, matchday, and sponsorship income over the coming years.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-19  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-20  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div   avia-builder-el-21  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='padding:10px 30px 10px 30px ; border-radius:0px; '><div  class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-builder-el-22  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><div class='avia-image-overlay-wrap'><img decoding=\"async\" class='wp-image-7871 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-7871 avia_image' src=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Using-the-January-Window-to-avoid-relegation-Graphic-01.png\" alt='' title='Using the January Window to avoid relegation - Graphic-01' height=\"1464\" width=\"2557\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Using-the-January-Window-to-avoid-relegation-Graphic-01.png 2557w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Using-the-January-Window-to-avoid-relegation-Graphic-01-300x172.png 300w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Using-the-January-Window-to-avoid-relegation-Graphic-01-1030x590.png 1030w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Using-the-January-Window-to-avoid-relegation-Graphic-01-768x440.png 768w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Using-the-January-Window-to-avoid-relegation-Graphic-01-1536x879.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Using-the-January-Window-to-avoid-relegation-Graphic-01-2048x1173.png 2048w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Using-the-January-Window-to-avoid-relegation-Graphic-01-1500x859.png 1500w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Using-the-January-Window-to-avoid-relegation-Graphic-01-705x404.png 705w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2557px) 100vw, 2557px\" \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-23  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-24  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-25  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-main-content '  style='font-size:20px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The challenge then becomes identifying undervalued players, and differentiating between price and value, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/price-vs-value\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">which we have written about here<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Smart <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/falling-transfer-fees-to-be-a-marker-for-footballs-post-covid-19-austerity-era-2\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">use of data<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is critical in January, to look where others are not and to understand the impact specific players could have on the club.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This framework to evaluate spend works for all clubs, and can also be used to help evaluate the need for another type of recruitment: head coaches. Strasbourg, for example, are suffering a poor second season under Julien St\u00e9phan, and have a 44% chance of being relegated. Investing \u20ac10m in the squad would only marginally improve these odds to 42%, whereas a 5-10% increase in player performance &#8211; perhaps achieved via a head coach change &#8211; would improve these odds to around 32%. This also serves to highlight the impact if improving the resources you already have compared to investing in talent that may or may not be a perfect fit for the club.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The instinct in January is to react big to results so far, but understanding just how big is enough to swing the odds in your favour is critical to enjoying a successful season.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If you would like to find out more about our performance intelligence services and how we can help your club in the transfer market, please get in touch with <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/contact\/get-in-touch\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Omar Chaudhuri<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-27  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_codeblock  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":7872,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[52,33],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.0 - 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