{"id":8832,"date":"2023-09-04T16:07:30","date_gmt":"2023-09-04T15:07:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/?p=8832"},"modified":"2023-09-05T13:16:36","modified_gmt":"2023-09-05T12:16:36","slug":"rugby-world-cup-2023-the-luck-of-the-draw","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/rugby-world-cup-2023-the-luck-of-the-draw\/","title":{"rendered":"Rugby World Cup 2023: The Luck of the Draw"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-0  el_before_av_three_fifth  avia-builder-el-first  \" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-1  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  \" style='border-radius:0px; '><div  style='padding-bottom:10px; ' class='av-special-heading av-special-heading-h2  blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-2  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  thought-leadership-heading '><div class ='av-subheading av-subheading_above  ' style='font-size:15px;'><p>Thought Leadership<\/p>\n<\/div><h2 class='av-special-heading-tag '  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Rugby World Cup 2023 &#8211; The Luck of the Draw<\/h2><div class='special-heading-border'><div class='special-heading-inner-border' ><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-3  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  \" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-4  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock  av_inherit_color '  style='color:#80808a; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><h4><span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\"><\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 12<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">MIN READ<\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-author '   itemprop=\"text\" ><h3><strong>By Harry Wells<\/strong><\/h3>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>September 5, 2023<\/h3>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div  style='height:5px' class='hr hr-invisible   avia-builder-el-7  el_after_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-last '><span class='hr-inner ' ><span class='hr-inner-style'><\/span><\/span><\/div><\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-8  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><p><div  class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-builder-el-9  el_before_av_hr  avia-builder-el-first  avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><div class='avia-image-overlay-wrap'><img decoding=\"async\" class='wp-image-8847 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-8847 avia_image' src=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/thomas-serer-QUr0R1VZPNw-unsplash.jpg\" alt='' title='thomas-serer-QUr0R1VZPNw-unsplash' height=\"1600\" width=\"2400\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/thomas-serer-QUr0R1VZPNw-unsplash.jpg 2400w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/thomas-serer-QUr0R1VZPNw-unsplash-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/thomas-serer-QUr0R1VZPNw-unsplash-1030x687.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/thomas-serer-QUr0R1VZPNw-unsplash-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/thomas-serer-QUr0R1VZPNw-unsplash-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/thomas-serer-QUr0R1VZPNw-unsplash-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/thomas-serer-QUr0R1VZPNw-unsplash-1500x1000.jpg 1500w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/thomas-serer-QUr0R1VZPNw-unsplash-705x470.jpg 705w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2400px) 100vw, 2400px\" \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<div  style='height:5px' class='hr hr-invisible   avia-builder-el-10  el_after_av_image  avia-builder-el-last '><span class='hr-inner ' ><span class='hr-inner-style'><\/span><\/span><\/div><\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-11  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-12  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-share '   itemprop=\"text\" ><h3>Thought Leadership<\/h3>\n<p>Inspired by what you&#8217;re reading? Why not subscribe for regular insights delivered straight to your inbox.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div  class='avia-button-wrap avia-button-left  avia-builder-el-14  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock ' ><a href='https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/contact\/news-signup\/'  class='avia-button  avia-color-theme-color   avia-icon_select-no avia-size-small avia-position-left '   ><span class='avia_iconbox_title' >Subscribe<\/span><\/a><\/div><br \/>\n<section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock  '   itemprop=\"text\" ><hr \/>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div  class='av-social-sharing-box  avia-builder-el-16  el_after_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-last  '><div class='av-share-box'><h5 class='av-share-link-description av-no-toc '>Share this story<\/h5><ul class='av-share-box-list noLightbox'><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-facebook' ><a target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Share on Facebook\" href='https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/rugby-world-cup-2023-the-luck-of-the-draw\/&#038;t=Rugby%20World%20Cup%202023%3A%20The%20Luck%20of%20the%20Draw' aria-hidden='false' data-av_icon='\ue8f3' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on Facebook' rel=\"noopener\"><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on Facebook<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-twitter' ><a target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Share on Twitter\" href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/share?text=Rugby%20World%20Cup%202023%3A%20The%20Luck%20of%20the%20Draw&#038;url=https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/?p=8832' aria-hidden='false' data-av_icon='\ue8f1' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on Twitter' rel=\"noopener\"><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on Twitter<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-linkedin' ><a target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Share on LinkedIn\" href='https:\/\/linkedin.com\/shareArticle?mini=true&#038;title=Rugby%20World%20Cup%202023%3A%20The%20Luck%20of%20the%20Draw&#038;url=https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/rugby-world-cup-2023-the-luck-of-the-draw\/' aria-hidden='false' data-av_icon='\ue8fc' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on LinkedIn' rel=\"noopener\"><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on LinkedIn<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-17  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-main-content '  style='font-size:20px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">World Rugby\u2019s decision to make the World Cup draw almost 1000 days before the tournament is likely to prove to be a mistake. A failure to account for more recent performances of the 20 teams risks undermining the attractiveness of the tournament for fans, as well as undermining sporting integrity.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Four years ago, England produced one of their greatest Rugby World Cup performances, rampaging past New Zealand to reach the final. England\u2019s team were the youngest ever to start the final: English rugby seemed to be in a strong place.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the other semi-final, Wales narrowly lost to South Africa. Afterwards, Wales Coach Warren Gatland, with a shade of envy, suggested that England had played their \u201cfinal&#8221; early. He was right &#8211; England\u2019s performance drop in the final was stark, with South Africa bullying England upfront and scoring freely. Gatland had correctly predicted the decline, but what he couldn&#8217;t have foreseen was that it would continue for the next 4 years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Poor results over the 2021 and 2022 Six Nations, an uninspiring 2023 Six Nations and flat performances in the World Cup warm up games have left the most optimistic of England fans searching for hope.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That hope has come in the form of the draw, resulting in England having a clear route to the semi finals.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But just how important is the draw and are England the only beneficiaries?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Draw<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The 2023 Rugby World Cup draw on 14th December 2020 grouped teams into 5 bands based on performance levels. Since then teams have improved and declined, meaning the resulting groups have an uneven spread of the current best teams across groups, with the 5 strongest current teams placed in Group A and Group B.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-19  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-20  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div   avia-builder-el-21  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='padding:10px 30px 10px 30px ; border-radius:0px; '><div  class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-builder-el-22  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><div class='avia-image-overlay-wrap'><a href='https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/graphic-1-1008x1030.jpg' class='avia_image'  ><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"2505\" height=\"2560\" class='wp-image-8833 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-8833 avia_image' src=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/graphic-1-scaled.jpg\" alt='' title='[Rugby World Cup 2023 Groups &amp; TFG Current Team Ratings]'  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/graphic-1-scaled.jpg 2505w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/graphic-1-294x300.jpg 294w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/graphic-1-1008x1030.jpg 1008w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/graphic-1-768x785.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/graphic-1-1503x1536.jpg 1503w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/graphic-1-2004x2048.jpg 2004w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/graphic-1-36x36.jpg 36w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/graphic-1-1468x1500.jpg 1468w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/graphic-1-690x705.jpg 690w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2505px) 100vw, 2505px\" \/><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-23  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-24  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-25  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-main-content '  style='font-size:20px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Our modelling shows that the draw has given England a 41% chance of making the semi-finals, slightly higher than hosts France (40%) despite being a considerably weaker team. Scotland, meanwhile, are stronger than all of the teams in Group C and Group D, but remain the 3rd strongest in Group B.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-27  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-28  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div   avia-builder-el-29  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='padding:10px 30px 10px 30px ; border-radius:0px; '><div  class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-builder-el-30  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><div class='avia-image-overlay-wrap'><a href='https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-2-1030x527.jpg' class='avia_image'  ><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1309\" class='wp-image-8834 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-8834 avia_image' src=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-2-scaled.jpg\" alt='' title='Graphic 2'  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-2-scaled.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-2-300x153.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-2-1030x527.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-2-768x393.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-2-1536x786.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-2-2048x1047.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-2-1500x767.jpg 1500w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-2-705x361.jpg 705w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-31  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-32  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-33  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-main-content '  style='font-size:20px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">International teams are in constant flux; since the World Cup draw in 2020, there has been a seismic shift in the pecking order of international rugby. France are resurgent, Scotland have started to realise their potential and Ireland have become the number 1 team in the world, while England and Wales have been in a state of steady decline.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-35  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-36  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div   avia-builder-el-37  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='padding:10px 30px 10px 30px ; border-radius:0px; '><div  class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-builder-el-38  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><div class='avia-image-overlay-wrap'><a href='https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/draw_table_with_ratings-1030x954.png' class='avia_image'  ><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"3900\" height=\"3612\" class='wp-image-8841 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-8841 avia_image' src=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/draw_table_with_ratings.png\" alt='' title='draw_table_with_ratings'  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/draw_table_with_ratings.png 3900w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/draw_table_with_ratings-300x278.png 300w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/draw_table_with_ratings-1030x954.png 1030w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/draw_table_with_ratings-768x711.png 768w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/draw_table_with_ratings-1536x1423.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/draw_table_with_ratings-2048x1897.png 2048w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/draw_table_with_ratings-1500x1389.png 1500w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/draw_table_with_ratings-705x653.png 705w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 3900px) 100vw, 3900px\" \/><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-39  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-40  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-41  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-main-content '  style='font-size:20px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Event planning issues aside, delaying the draw maximises the quality of matches in the semi-final and final. If the draw were to happen 6 months before the tournament, the pool groups would be vastly different. Seeding the teams ranked by TFG\u2019s team rating model from March 2023, the groups would instead look something like this:<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-43  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-44  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div   avia-builder-el-45  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='padding:10px 30px 10px 30px ; border-radius:0px; '><div  class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-builder-el-46  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><div class='avia-image-overlay-wrap'><a href='https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Groups-1030x323.jpg' class='avia_image'  ><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"803\" class='wp-image-8844 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-8844 avia_image' src=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Groups-scaled.jpg\" alt='' title='Groups'  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Groups-scaled.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Groups-300x94.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Groups-1030x323.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Groups-768x241.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Groups-1536x482.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Groups-2048x642.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Groups-1500x470.jpg 1500w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Groups-705x221.jpg 705w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-47  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-48  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-49  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-main-content '  style='font-size:20px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><b>Group Stages<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These alternative groups would result in vastly different odds for the better teams progressing. Ireland and South Africa both benefit from no longer being in the same group. Scotland would gain the most since their improved rating would place them in the second seeding pot rather than the third, meaning they would be the second strongest team in their pool, a critical difference given two teams progress per group.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Japan would struggle more as they would drop from being the potential banana skin to weakened England and Argentina sides, to being the 4th strongest team in their group. England and Argentina would also take a hit: England become the second strongest team in their pool and Argentina face a tougher first seed and more competitive third seed in their group<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-51  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-52  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div   avia-builder-el-53  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='padding:10px 30px 10px 30px ; border-radius:0px; '><div  class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-builder-el-54  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><div class='avia-image-overlay-wrap'><a href='https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-5-1030x696.jpg' class='avia_image'  ><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1729\" class='wp-image-8835 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-8835 avia_image' src=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-5-scaled.jpg\" alt='' title='[TFG Rugby World Cup 2023 Predictions for Group Stage]'  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-5-scaled.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-5-300x203.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-5-1030x696.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-5-768x519.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-5-1536x1038.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-5-2048x1384.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-5-1500x1013.jpg 1500w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-5-705x476.jpg 705w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-55  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-56  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-57  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-main-content '  style='font-size:20px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><b>Knockouts<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This alternative draw would set up a much more attractive set of knockout matches. In particular, the quality of Semi Finals is dramatically reduced under the current draw. An all southern hemisphere semi finals is currently the most likely outcome, with the favourites in both ties having over 70% chance of winning. Compare this to the alternate draw, where South Africa vs New Zealand and France vs Ireland are the most likely semi finals, the favourite has at most 54% chance of progressing. <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-59  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-60  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div   avia-builder-el-61  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='padding:10px 30px 10px 30px ; border-radius:0px; '><div  class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-builder-el-62  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><div class='avia-image-overlay-wrap'><a href='https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/graphics-1030x614.jpg' class='avia_image'  ><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1527\" class='wp-image-8836 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-8836 avia_image' src=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/graphics-scaled.jpg\" alt='' title='% graphics'  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/graphics-scaled.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/graphics-300x179.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/graphics-1030x614.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/graphics-768x458.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/graphics-1536x916.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/graphics-2048x1221.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/graphics-1500x895.jpg 1500w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/graphics-705x420.jpg 705w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-63  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-64  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div   avia-builder-el-65  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='padding:10px 30px 10px 30px ; border-radius:0px; '><div  class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-builder-el-66  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><div class='avia-image-overlay-wrap'><a href='https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-9-1030x593.jpg' class='avia_image'  ><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1473\" class='wp-image-8837 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-8837 avia_image' src=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-9-scaled.jpg\" alt='' title='Graphic 9'  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-9-scaled.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-9-300x173.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-9-1030x593.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-9-768x442.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-9-1536x884.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-9-2048x1178.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-9-1500x863.jpg 1500w, https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Graphic-9-705x406.jpg 705w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-67  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  avia-builder-el-68  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_three_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_three_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-69  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock thought-leadership-main-content '  style='font-size:20px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><b>The Impact on the competition narrative\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The early draw for the World Cup has changed the competition narrative, allocating jeopardy in the group stages through two \u2018groups of death\u2019, but at the expense of jeopardy in the latter stages, where lower quality games with greater mismatches are more likely to take place.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Indeed, this has echoes of women\u2019s tennis, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/three-sets-mean-serena-not-novak-is-the-goat\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">where the three-set format means more early-round upsets at the expense of latter round heavyweight contests<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. In our view, this has undermined the ability of women\u2019s tennis to generate the same commercial returns as the men\u2019s game.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The draw also undermines sporting credibility, unfairly hurting Scotland and Ireland\u2019s chances in particular &#8211; two teams that have yet to enjoy significant World Cup success.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We therefore also believe that the existing draw undermines the potential of the World Cup to grow rugby\u2019s fan base; new and casual fans are naturally more attracted to the latter stages of the tournament, and organisers should do everything within their powers &#8211; without undermining sporting integrity &#8211; to ensure that the knockouts deliver best vs. best, unpredictable rugby. World Rugby\u2019s decision to make a change ahead of the 2027 tournament means that the tournament in Australia has a better chance of thrilling fans at the key moments in the tournament.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>If you would like to find out more about our Competition Intelligence services please get in touch with\u00a0<a class=\"c-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/contact\/get-in-touch\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-stringify-link=\"https:\/\/www.twentyfirstgroup.com\/contact\/get-in-touch\/\" data-sk=\"tooltip_parent\">Ben Marlow<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><div class=\"flex_column av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   avia-builder-el-71  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_codeblock  column-top-margin\" style='border-radius:0px; '><\/div><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":8847,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[53,52,33],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Rugby World Cup 2023: The Luck of the Draw - Twenty First Group Limited<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The England Men\u2019s rugby team has been struggling. 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